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Joseph Nye on 2015: the 13th five year plan of promoting stability in Asia by the Xi'an Olympic Games deserves the most attention

Professor Joseph Nye of Harvard University and scholar lukley of Renmin University of China. Lu Zequan

listen to Joseph Nye's remarks on 2015 - the terrorist attacks and refugee crisis have the greatest impact, and China's "13th five year plan" deserves the most attention

[Global Times reported that lukeley Liu Xinxin] "2015 is the first year of China's century". At the end of December last year, the American economist and Nobel Laureate in economics Stiglitz made such a prediction, Joseph Nye, a famous scholar who proposed the concept of "soft power", emphasized the continuation of the "American Century" in early March this year. As the new year approaches, at the invitation of the global times, scholars lukley and Liu Xinxin from Renmin University of China recently interviewed Professor Joseph Nye on major international issues and China's development in 2015. Joseph Nye is not only a professor of Harvard University, but also a policy adviser to the U.S. State Department and the Department of defense. He once served as the dean of the Kennedy School of government at Harvard University and the director of the center for international affairs research. He served as the deputy to the Deputy Secretary of state of the Carter administration, the chairman of the National Intelligence Committee of the Clinton administration, and the assistant secretary of defense. Is the American century over And "American hegemony or American dominance?" And other articles have been widely concerned or reprinted by international media. Joseph Nye, who is 78 years old, said in a dialogue with Chinese scholars that it is difficult to predict the world today, because the dilemma of the United States is that "the world's only superpower cannot fight alone", and China and the United States can completely avoid the so-called "Thucydides trap". Chinese scholars: looking back 20 years, it is also an important factor for the smooth progress of the experiment and the accuracy of the experimental results. In the past 15 years, many major events have taken place worldwide, such as the Xi'an equestrian Congress, which affects cross-strait relations, the refugee tide that tests Europe, "Islamic state" made terrorist attacks in Paris and other places, the escalation of contradictions between Russia and Turkey, the general election in Myanmar, and so on, What events do you think can most affect the world? Why

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josephnai: the terrorist attacks in Paris and the refugee crisis have had a great impact on the stability of Europe and the world. Both of these two events are related to the chaos in the Middle East and the Syrian civil war. On the other hand, Iran and the six parties to the Iranian nuclear issue (including China) Finally, a historic and comprehensive agreement was reached to solve the Iranian nuclear issue, successfully avoiding a possible war in the region

Chinese scholars: is the world in a very unpredictable stage

Joseph Nye: Yes, the world today is in a very unpredictable stage, but people may forget that the world has always been like this. Many major events in history have been unexpected. For example, the founding of the people's Republic of China in 1949, the invasion of Hungary by the Soviet Union in 1956, the invasion of Egypt by Britain and France (the two countries fought for control of the Suez Canal, which led to the second Middle East War - editor's note), the Vietnam War and other events are unexpected to many people

even though the United States is still the strongest, it also loses hegemony control

Chinese scholars: a test stick should be processed at the end of December last year. American economist Stiglitz said that 2015 was "the first year of the Chinese century", but soon, you published "is the American century over?" The book still reminds you to see "the continuation of the American Century". Many people don't agree with these two statements. Some people put forward the view that "the 21st century is neither the Chinese century nor the American Century". Do you agree with this

Joseph Nye: in 2014, some measured by purchasing power parity, China's economic scale surpassed that of the United States, but as I wrote in my book, it is very bad to measure the economy in this way. In terms of exchange rate, I think China is a $10trillion economy and the United States is an $18trillion economy. Dealing with international issues requires cooperation between the United States and China (as well as other countries)

Chinese scholars: why do you emphasize that the world has become more complex. Although the United States is facing the possibility of being surpassed by China in terms of economic aggregate, the United States will remain politically and militarily strong, and the "American Century" will last for at least decades? However, some people think that the strength of the United States has indeed been weakened a lot, considering the performance of the United States on issues such as chaos in the Middle East and counter-terrorism

Joseph Nye: on the whole, no country in the world, whether it is economic power, military power or soft power, can surpass the United States in 25 years. Of course, due to the revolution in the Middle East, the power of the United States in the region has been much weaker than 25 years ago. These two views are not contradictory. No external force can control there

Chinese scholars: if it is difficult for any country to replace the United States in its heyday in the future, how will the United States continue to influence the world as the country with the strongest comprehensive strength in the world

Joseph Nye: even if the United States will still be the most powerful country, the United States will have no hegemonic control, and other countries will not. Cooperation between countries is still needed on important issues such as currency stability, climate change, counter-terrorism, and network security. Ten years ago, I said that the dilemma of "American power" was that the world's only superpower could not fight alone

Chinese scholars: please talk about Russia. What do you think of Russia's recent participation in the fight against the "Islamic state" in Syria and its response to the downing of its warplane by Turkey? Does the contradiction between Russia and Turkey reflect the "thucydide trap" to a certain extent (the newly rising power must choose the needs that can match the needs of customers! Fight against the existing power), Russia wants to continue to show its muscles, and Turkey may want to seek the greatest regional interests

josephnai: Russia is a country with declining population and economy. Putin tried to improve Russia's reputation by interfering in the situation in Ukraine and Syria, but his hope was slim and there were huge risks

"thucydide trap material has relatively stable performance" is too exaggerated, and "middle-income trap" is difficult to come true

Chinese scholars: looking back on 2015, many major events related to China have also become global hot spots, such as the concept of the "the Belt and Road", the establishment of the Asian investment bank, the entry of RMB into SDR, China's 13th five year plan, China's military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the victory of the war of resistance against Japan and the world anti fascist war, etc, What do you care about most

Joseph Nai: I think the most important thing in the long run is whether the 13th five year plan can be successfully implemented. This is an important change in China's development strategy, but there are also some hidden problems. I hope the 13th five year plan will succeed

Chinese scholars: some scholars have proposed that China is facing two "traps", one is the "middle-income trap" and the other is the "thucydide trap". What do you think of the two "traps"? Will China's economy develop steadily? Can China and the United States completely avoid the "thucydide trap"

Joseph Nye: I have always believed that the so-called "thucydide trap" is just an exaggeration. China and the United States can completely avoid the "thucydide trap" by seriously handling the relationship between the two countries. The saying of "middle-income trap" is even more difficult to come true, which is why I emphasize the smooth implementation of the 13th five year plan

Chinese scholars: is the establishment of the Asian investment bank and the "the Belt and Road" plan expanding and consolidating China's "circle of friends"

Joseph Nye: I am optimistic about the Asian investment bank and glad that the United States can withdraw its opposition. Similarly, if China helps other countries in infrastructure construction through the "the Belt and Road", it will be beneficial to the world. Development is not a zero sum game

Chinese scholars: back to your concept of "soft power" again, which country do you think has accumulated and applied "soft power" best and most effectively over the years

josephnai: a recent study by a British consulting organization showed that Britain and Germany have the strongest "soft power", but many small countries also perform well, such as Norway and Singapore

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